Minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed most officials expect another rate increase before year-end, though recent data has reduced the odds of a move at the October 28 meeting.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting, released on October 7, confirmed that a majority of officials believe another rate increase will likely be appropriate before the end of 2026. The document stated that most participants judged a further rise in the federal funds target range would be warranted, citing inflation that has remained above the 2% goal for more than five years and a labor market near full employment.

However, the minutes did not specify a preferred timing. Officials emphasized that they approach each meeting with an open mind and that decisions would depend on incoming data. Since the September 16 rate hike—the first since 2023—several Fed speakers have stressed there is no urgency to act again, and recent inflation data (PCE at 3.0% core in August) came in below expectations. Markets now assign a low probability to an October move, with December seen as the more likely window for the next increase.