Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to pre-commit on rate decisions at the IMF meetings in Bangkok, pushing market odds of an October hike below 15% from roughly 27% a week earlier.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his appearance at the IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok to avoid any signal on the near-term policy path, reiterating only that the Fed is committed to price stability. Markets read the remarks as dovish: futures-implied odds of a hike at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting fell below 15%, down from about 27% before his speech.

The Fed raised rates by 25bp in September—its first increase since 2023—taking the target range to 3.75%–4.00%, and most officials' dot plots still point to one more hike this year. Goldman Sachs now expects the next move in December rather than October.