The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model now tracks 3.2% annualized Q3 growth, down sharply from its early-September estimate of 4.8%, as private investment and net export contributions weakened.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a closely watched real-time growth tracker, has cut its estimate for third-quarter US real GDP growth to 3.2% annualized, down from 4.8% on September 1 and 4.6% in late August. The downward revision reflects softer readings on private domestic investment and a larger drag from net exports, partially offset by stronger personal consumption expenditures.

Despite the downgrade, a 3.2% pace would still represent an acceleration from Q2's 2.2% growth and mark the strongest quarter in a year. The median of a broader set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator also sits at 3.2%. The official BEA release is scheduled for October 29. The trajectory—a strong early-summer estimate that moderated as more data arrived—is consistent with the pattern seen throughout 2026, where AI-related capital expenditure initially boosted forecasts before trade and inventory dynamics pulled them back toward trend.